Hospitals, doctors' surgeries and just about everywhere else seems to be full of spluttering, snuffling sufferers at the moment - so are we heading for a flu epidemic?

If you are one of the thousands whose carefully-concocted plans for the festive season were scuppered by That Bug, it doesn't really matter what you call it.

According to many experts, it is neither the flu, nor an epidemic. Others say differently. But, as the Bard succinctly put it, what's in a name? Respiratory virus or flu, the misery is the same.

High temperatures, aching joints, breathing problems, headaches and a general feeling of weakness have felled hundreds of people - but still, apparently, not the mandatory 400 cases per 100,000 population to qualify as an epidemic.

Simon Barber, a spokesman for the Public Health Laboratory Service, said that up to December 27, an average of 80 sufferers per 100,000 population a week in England and Wales were recorded - but he expected that figure to rise in the next few weeks. More exact figures will be available by the end of this week.

As Accident and Emergency departments in both Southend and Basildon Hospital bulge at the seams, the knock-on effect is being felt by patients who have been anxiously expecting to go in for an operation. With only hours to go they are getting the call that their admission has been postponed.

Both hospital trusts have had to cancel operations every day this week - up to 20 a day in Southend and so far 25 at Basildon and Orsett. Additional beds have been opened up to cope with the huge influx, extra staff brought in and more ambulances laid on.

Both hospitals say that the last few days in A & E have been the busiest in memory.

Southend saw a nine per cent increase in emergency admissions over the Christmas period compared with the same period last year, which translates into around 60 new patients a day - more than double the normal daily intake. On one day over the holiday period, there were 94 emergency admissions.

Incredibly, Dr Amelia Cummins, consultant in communicable diseases for South Essex Health Authority, said there was "nothing unusual for the time of year".

Every day doctors are having to do the rounds to decide which patients can safely be discharged from their desperately-needed beds.

The problems have been compounded by the number of bed blockers - patients deemed medically fit to leave hospital but still waiting for adequate community care to be put in place for them.

At Southend, 60 beds are being taken up by such patients with another 51 in Basildon.

Ros Mortis, Southend's PR manager, admitted it might not be possible to call in patients whose operation had been put off for at least a month, in contravention of the Patient's Charter.

But she urged anyone who had been sent a date not to ring the hospital - all cancelled patients will be contacted. Day-stay operations should not be affected.

Concerned Leigh GP, Dr Lawrence Singer, whose surgery in Sutherland Boulevard has been crammed with patients, warned that a prolonged cold spell would put the hospital in danger of collapse.

He said: "If the temperature drops to minus 5 we have to fear the worst.

"Whenever you phone the Department of Medicine for the Elderly, it is full. Elderly patients have to be put into acute medical beds, so the pressure is building up all the time. The hospital is in imminent danger of collapse."

Dr Singer said the difficulties GPs face in getting their patients into a hospital bed might daunt younger, less experienced doctors.

"It is very hard. You have to negotiate your position with the admitting registrar who is in a difficult situation. But acute cases have to be admitted and one cannot be deflected."

According to Stephen Barber of the Public Health Laboratory Service, there are two strains of flu at large - H3N2 Sydney flu and Beijing flu, but so far it is the North and Central England which have come off worst with at least double the number of cases.

But Geoff Martin, campaigns director for the pressure group London Health Emergency, said: "London is already starting to feel the strain, with the prospect of worse to come this week.

"It is the last thing London needs at the moment and will pile pressure onto services that are already struggling."

Jonathan Street, spokesman for North Thames NHS Executive, hit out at otherwise fit young people who took up valuable hospital time when symptoms broke.

Only the elderly who could go on to develop pneumonia and young asthmatics needed to go to hospital, he said.

Dr Douglas Fleming of the Royal College of General Practi-tioners' flu monitoring unit said: "There are a lot of people across the country who have flu, but the overall level has not reached exceptional levels. It is unlikely that it will become an epidemic."

Yesterday the Government announced details of more than 2,000 initiatives to combat the winter crisis in the NHS. The extra £159 million to pay for them was announced by Chancellor Gordon Brown in his spending review last November.

Health Secretary, Frank Dobson, conceded: "Every winter brings extra pressures, but this winter is proving even more challenging than ever."

Converted for the new archive on 19 November 2001. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.