An online ‘Covid calculator’ has predicted how many cases of Covid north and mid Essex will be seeing as the school holidays draw to a close.

As it stands Colchester saw 476 cases in the seven days to August 3, just a week into the school holidays. 

Braintree saw 311 cases, Tendring had 266 cases and Maldon 116.

The Imperial College London map predicts by August 22 as the school holidays draw to a close all areas in north and mid Essex will have seen a drop in cases. 

The map gives a prediction of how likely each area will be seeing more than 100 cases a week. 

  • Maldon - 41%
  • Colchester - 35% 
  • Braintree - 27%
  • Tendring - 16%

The map also shows how likely this would be more than 200 cases in a week. 

  • Maldon - 12%
  • Colchester - 10%
  • Braintree - 7%
  • Tendring - 4%

The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to report a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

The Government said a further 39 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Sunday, bringing the UK total to 130,321.

Separate figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there have been 155,000 deaths registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

As of 9am on Sunday, there had been a further 27,429 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK, the Government said.