WITH families and friends soon able to meet in gardens in groups of up to six, it may be helpful to know the probability of Essex seeing a spike in Covid cases.

Under the Government's roadmap, groups of up to six or two households can meet socially distanced in private gardens from Monday.

And the Imperial College London's interactive map has revealed the areas of Essex likely to see a spike in Covid cases.

The following list ranks the areas in probability of seeing more than 100 cases per week by April 10:

  • Tendring - 0 per cent
  • Southend - 0 per cent
  • Basildon - 0 per cent
  • Brentwood - 0 per cent
  • Maldon - 0 per cent 
  • Braintree - 0 per cent
  • Chelmsford - 0 per cent 
  • Colchester - 1 per cent
  • Rochford - 2 per cent
  • Thurrock - 4 per cent
  • Castle Point - 5 per cent

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However the probability changes when analysing the chances of each area seeing more than 50 cases per week by the same date:

  • Maldon - 0 per cent 
  • Braintree - 0 per cent 
  • Chelmsford - 2 per cent 
  • Basildon - 2 per cent
  • Southend - 6 per cent
  • Brentwood - 6 per cent
  • Tendring - 6 per cent 
  • Colchester - 11 per cent 
  • Rochford - 12 per cent
  • Thurrock - 19 per cent
  • Castle Point - 22 per cent

The map also shows where cases are decreases across the county. 

Gazette:

It shows in most cases in Essex cases are decreasing and in Colchester, Tendring, Southend and Thurrock cases are 'likely decreasing'.