With Professor Chris Whitty’s stark warning of another 30,000 Covid deaths in the UK to come, there appears a real possibility a third wave of infections could be on the cards.

England’s chief medical officer issued his warning earlier this week in a bid to calm talk about easing all restrictions as soon as possible.

The Government’s road map out of lockdown has given clear dates for when certain rules will be lifted, with March 29 set to see gatherings of up to six people outside permitted.

But the Prime Minister himself has warned the easing of lockdown will be based on ‘data not dates’, perhaps hinting we should be prepared for a change of course.

So here are five things that could lead to a change to the road map, and an extension to this latest lockdown:

Spike in community cases

Despite the majority of areas in England seeing a continued drop in cases, there are some places where rates have levelled off, or even started to rise again.

Health bosses have admitted the reopening of schools will lead to an increase in Covid cases, but they hope mass testing will enable to stop the virus ripping through classrooms.

A spike in Covid cases in Derbyshire has meanwhile been linked to a surge of infections in a prison.

But if cases rise in areas where the root cause cannot be found, it will likely point to an outbreak in the communities themselves, and give experts serious doubts about lifting lockdown.

Success of vaccine rollout

Health bosses say an issue with vaccine supplies has seen the rate of jabs lower in recent weeks.

They are however hoping for an increase in supplies in the coming days.

Their biggest concern now appears to be people declining the offer of a vaccine, particularly in ethnic groups and people of certain ages.

The news that some European countries have stopped using the Oxford vaccine amid fears it was causing blood clots will not have helped the matter.

Vaccine makers have rejected those concerns, but it will have done little to help with the Government’s campaign to take up the offer of a jab and ease any concerns about it.

Ministers have pinned their hopes on the vaccine bringing the UK out of a state of flux between lockdowns and normal life.

But for that to work, it will need as many people as possible to be vaccinated to prevent serious illness and death.

Mutations

Scientists fear a mutation of Covid-19 could prove resistant to current vaccines, forcing them to change the make-up of the doses.

This could delay easing lockdown by months.

The Government has already admitted annual booster jabs of the vaccine may be required to address mutations.

Gazette:

There is currently little known about the impact of the vaccine on the Brazilian mutation of coronavirus – of which there has been several cases reported in the UK already.

Despite the concern, new variants are "very unlikely" to send the UK back to square one, a top scientist has said.

Professor Sharon Peacock, who is in charge of tracking strains of the virus in Britain, said the country is well equipped to "stay ahead" by adapting vaccines quickly.

The head of the COVID-19 Genomics UK scientific body told The Times she was "very optimistic" that immunisation would allow Britain to ease restrictions as planned.

Lifting restrictions too early

Returning to Chris Whitty’s warning earlier this week, lifting rules too soon could well lead to disastrous consequences.

He has been defending the dates given on the road map so far, and the five week intervals between each step.

But his warning also echoed Boris Johnson’s own mantra that the Government will be guided by data and not worry about the dates.

Speaking to MPs on Tuesday, Prof Whitty said: “What we are going to see is, as things are opening up, what all the modelling suggests is that at some point we will get a surge in virus.

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“We hope it doesn’t happen soon, it might for example happen later in the summer if we open up gradually or because of the seasonal effect it might happen over the next autumn and winter.”

He told MPs that even opening up in a “steady way” such as in the road map would result in more deaths, but fewer than in a rushed release of restrictions.

“It is really important that we do not give any impression that what we are expecting is this just goes away and there is no further deaths.

“That is not realistic and I think to pretend that to the British public would be completely wrong.”

Rise in Covid patients in hospitals

Despite the improving picture across the country, health chiefs have this week pointed out the number of Covid patients in hospitals is still significantly higher than the numbers seen last summer.

While the number of infections is always being watched closely, the situation in hospitals is perhaps the biggest indicator of the state of the pandemic.

Lockdowns have been imposed in the UK to ‘save lives, and protect the NHS’.

Gazette:

Ministers will be desperate not to see a repeat of the second wave of infections seen in January – which was arguably even deadlier than the first – and saw the NHS placed under immense strain.

Hospital waiting lists are said to be at a record high amid the coronavirus crisis, with an estimated 4.66 million people waiting for treatment.

Spikes in Covid cases has seen non-urgent surgery and treatment postponed throughout the last year, so the Government will be desperate to avoid the waiting list getting any longer because of another wave of coronavirus.